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Monthly Ecocapsule_Aug’24: From K-Shaped Recovery to K-Shaped Narratives

The Report encapsulates a data-heavy Jul’24 which saw global datapoints take navigating recessionary chicanes, resulting in a rapid realignment of rate expectations, and a consequent market sell-off. The chain reaction started with sour US jobs data, which triggered an equity market dip even as bond markets rejoiced. The BoJ raised rates to prevent the currency which was hitherto scrounging in the pits of despair, from crashing further. In this volatile scenario, different Central Banks have adopted divergent strategies. India’s growth story remains intact on solid domestic fundamentals, with global factors the only clouds on the horizon. Given the additional prick from heady food inflation and a need to maintain stability in the INR (vs. USD), the RBI maintained a status quo. The Report concludes outlining the regulatory developments in Jul’24, along with a view on benchmark G-sec yields.

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